CORDEX.be II

CORDEX.be II is a Belspo-funded research project that aims to calculate spatially-detailed climate projections for Belgium that are in line with the latest emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Such national climate projections are the cornerstone  for climate policy, as prioritized in the federal adaptation plan. The project comprises scientists from KU Leuven, ULiège, UGent and VITO, is coordinated by RMI (KMI/IRM) and is supported by the Belgian Climate Centre (BCC).

What type of results will be available and how can these be used? 

Temporal and spatially detailed time series of future climate projections and impact indicators are relevant to study climate extremes 1) for research applications linked to climate-change impact studies, 2) to quantify the future physical climate hazards relevant for risk assessments and 3) to set priorities and measures in adaptation plans and strategies. In addition, potential future extreme events will be highlighted through storylines that extrapolate well-known past extreme events into a future warmer world.

In 2023, the project priorities were defined in line with the needs of core stakeholders including the National Crisis Centre, the Flemish and Walloon environmental agencies and the federal public service for climate change. Focus will be on physical climate hazards related to extreme heat and extreme rainfall over Belgium in a world with 2°C and 3°C warming.

In 2024, future simulations with the ULiège model were completed and made available. The RMI and KU Leuven models were updated and configured at the Flemish Supercomputing Center. The historical simulations have already finished and the model calculations for the future period  are ongoing. Moreover, the climate projections and impact indicators that were produced in the former CORDEX.be I project  were published at the federal geodata portal of the National Geographic Institute and presented at a launch event organized by the BCC.

How well do the models reproduce the observed climate? Based on a newly-developed programming tool ValEnsPy the models are validated or compared with climate observations in a common framework. Preliminary results indicate that our models are comparable to other state-of-the-art models in reproducing rainfall and temperature climatology over Europe.

UGent and VITO have performed a  measurement campaign in Ghent. Additionally, two urban climate models were configured to add detailed city-scale information to the output of the regional climate-model data.

The CORDEX.be II climate simulations over Europe will be integrated into the international project EURO-CORDEX which is the European branch of the World Climate Research Program program called CORDEX.

When will all climate projections be ready? By the beginning of 2026, the simulations will be finished. All model data will then be aggregated to identify common climate-change signals, do further in-depth analysis and to design the storylines.